The AUD/JPY cross extended its upward momentum on Wednesday after Australia’s hotter-than-expected CPI report reduced expectations for additional RBA rate cuts, offering fresh support to the Aussie.
The pair climbed toward 101.70 in early European trading, marking a new weekly high, with buyers now watching for a breakout from the nearly three-week-long consolidation zone to confirm the next directional move.
Technical backdrop supports bullish bias
The 100-day Simple Moving Average continues to trend higher, and AUD/JPY’s position above this level reinforces a constructive outlook. Meanwhile, the MACD is fluctuating around the zero line, with minimal separation between the MACD and Signal lines – a sign of still-soft momentum. The RSI at 60.39 maintains a mildly bullish reading above the 50 threshold.
Upside levels to watch
As long as the pair holds above the rising 100-day SMA, currently just under 98.00, trend conditions should remain in favor of the bulls. A sustained MACD turn into positive territory would add conviction to a move toward the 102.45–102.50 zone — the highest levels seen since July 2024 and tested last week.
Downside risks
Initial support lies at 101.40, with stronger buying interest expected near the 101.00 round figure. A break below this level would expose the lower boundary of the current trading range around 100.40–100.35.
A clear drop beneath that area may trigger technical selling, pushing the pair under the psychological 100.00 handle and toward the next notable support at 99.65–99.60.
