XRP is consolidating near $3.00 as bulls and bears engage in a tight battle, while the latest US inflation data injects volatility across crypto markets. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) release has sharpened focus on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision, keeping traders on edge.
US inflation rises as Fed decision looms
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), US consumer prices rose 0.4% month-over-month in August, up from 0.2% in July. On a yearly basis, CPI climbed to 2.9%, the highest level since January, compared to 2.7% in the prior month. The increase highlights the inflationary pressures tied to elevated tariffs under President Donald Trump’s administration.
Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy components, rose 0.3% in August, matching July’s pace. On an annual basis, Core CPI registered 3.1%, underscoring persistent underlying price pressures. Fed policymakers closely monitor Core CPI when assessing long-term inflation dynamics.
Market bets on a September 25-basis-point rate cut to the 4.00%–4.25% range eased slightly after the CPI release. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the probability of a cut slipped to 88.7% on Thursday, down from 91% a day earlier.
Retail demand supports XRP momentum
While macroeconomic uncertainty weighs on sentiment, retail participation in XRP remains strong. Data from CoinGlass shows futures Open Interest (OI) climbed to $8.15 billion on Thursday, up from $7.37 billion at the start of the week. The steady rise in OI suggests confidence in XRP’s ability to sustain gains toward the July 18 peak of $3.66.
Technical outlook: XRP maintains bullish structure
XRP is holding firm at the key $3.00 level, with traders taking advantage of dips toward the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2.91. A decisive move higher could open the door to resistance at $3.35, last tested in mid-August.
Momentum indicators continue to favor the bulls. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has been flashing a buy signal since Monday, with the blue MACD line staying above the red signal line. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has inched up to 54, reflecting growing bullish momentum as selling pressure eases.
A further push in RSI toward overbought territory would reinforce buying pressure. However, traders should remain cautious of potential pullbacks if XRP slips below the 50-day EMA at $2.91.
