Ripple’s XRP traded sideways on Tuesday, holding within a narrow band between support at $2.83 and resistance at $2.92. Market sentiment has remained muted in recent weeks, consistent with the broader view of September as a historically bearish month for crypto.
Data from CryptoRank shows XRP is on track to close September with modest gains of 2.76%. Notably, the token has posted positive September returns for three straight years, including a 46% rally in 2022. October, however, has lacked a clear pattern, with returns proving inconsistent, leaving traders reliant on technical and macroeconomic signals.
Derivatives market signals cautious optimism
Retail participation in XRP stabilized after last week’s volatility, which pushed the token down to $2.70 and triggered widespread liquidations. CoinGlass data shows open interest (OI) in XRP futures averaging $7.58 billion, down from $8.96 billion on September 19. A recovery in OI would indicate rising conviction that XRP could break above the $3.00 threshold.
Meanwhile, funding rates in XRP perpetual futures have surged, with the OI-weighted funding rate climbing to 0.0102%. The metric, which reflects aggregated funding rates across exchanges, shows traders increasingly positioning for upside. While high positive funding rates suggest strong bullish sentiment, extreme readings above 0.1% can signal overheating. For now, levels remain within a “healthy” range, allowing bulls to maintain exposure and aim for a breakout.
Technical outlook: Key levels to watch
XRP is holding the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2.83, but technical indicators suggest rising downside pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in bearish territory after crossing below its signal line, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has been flashing a sell signal since September 22.
If XRP breaks below the 100-day EMA at $2.83, bears could drive prices toward $2.70, with further support at the 200-day EMA around $2.61 and the psychological $2.50 level. On the upside, bulls need to defend current support and push decisively above the $2.92–$3.00 resistance zone to confirm a short-term breakout.
