West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures on NYMEX trade around 0.4% lower near the $57.00 level during late Asian hours on Monday, coming under pressure amid expectations of a potential increase in global oil supply.
The decline follows the US military operation in Venezuela that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro on drug-trafficking charges and Washington’s subsequent pledge to overhaul the country’s oil industry.
Speaking to reporters at his Mar-a-Lago residence on Saturday, US President Donald Trump stated that major American oil companies would be brought into Venezuela to rebuild energy infrastructure and export oil to global markets. The announcement reinforced market concerns that a US-led restructuring of Venezuela’s oil sector could eventually unlock additional supply.
According to the London-based Energy Institute, Venezuela holds approximately 303 billion barrels of crude oil, representing about 7% of proven global reserves. However, years of underinvestment and sanctions have sharply reduced output. Data cited by Dow Jones Newswires show that Venezuela currently produces less than one million barrels per day, with exports standing at roughly 500,000 barrels per day.
Market impact tempered by structural challenges
Despite the headlines, market participants remain cautious about the near-term implications. Analysts note that a comprehensive overhaul of Venezuela’s oil industry would be a lengthy process, limiting the likelihood of an immediate surge in supply. As a result, the US-led intervention is not expected to trigger a sharp knee-jerk reaction in crude prices in the short run.
OPEC maintains output stance
Adding to the pressure on oil prices, OPEC decided on Sunday to keep production levels unchanged and did not address the potential impact of the US commitment to rebuild Venezuela’s oil infrastructure, according to CNBC.
OPEC+ members had already raised collective output targets by around 2.9 million barrels per day during the first ten months of 2025, while maintaining steady production quotas at their November and December meetings.
Together, expectations of future supply growth and OPEC’s steady output policy continue to cap upside momentum in WTI, keeping prices vulnerable to further downside in the near term.
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