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WTI price forecast: Momentum improves, but downside risks linger below $60

According to ixbroker, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil is trading largely unchanged on Wednesday as markets drift into holiday mode, with prices hovering near two-week highs amid thin liquidity conditions. The US benchmark continues to draw modest support from rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and Venezuela, which have added a small risk premium to prices. At the time of writing, WTI trades around $58.33 per barrel, pausing after a three-day advance.

From a technical perspective, the daily chart points to a tentative recovery in WTI. Prices have reclaimed the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $58.04, signalling a short-term improvement in sentiment. Buyers stepped back in last week after prices revisited the psychological $55 level, helping to contain further downside following a test of year-to-date lows.

Key resistance remains below $60

On the upside, gains may remain capped by overhead moving averages. The 50-day SMA near $58.58 stands as immediate resistance, while the next key barrier is the $60 psychological level, where the 100-day SMA converges around $60.71. Without a clear and sustained break above $60, downside risks are likely to persist.

Support levels and downside risks

On the downside, a failure to hold above the 21-day SMA could see prices slip back toward initial support near $56.50, followed by the $55.00 round figure. A decisive break below this zone would reopen downside risks toward multi-year lows.

Momentum indicators show early improvement

Momentum signals are beginning to turn more constructive. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near the 50 level after rebounding from near-oversold territory, suggesting selling pressure has eased. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains above its Signal line and in positive territory, with a modestly expanding histogram pointing to gradually improving bullish momentum, even as broader risks remain skewed to the downside below $60.


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