West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil prices started the new week on a positive footing, rising to a one-week high near the $57.00 area during Asian trading hours. Despite the intraday advance, upside momentum remains cautious, as traders weigh heightened geopolitical risks against persistent concerns over supply-demand dynamics.
Geopolitical tensions have provided a notable tailwind for Oil prices. Over the weekend, the United States intercepted a Venezuelan oil tanker, while a US official confirmed that the Coast Guard is actively pursuing a sanctioned “dark fleet” vessel linked to Venezuela’s efforts to evade international sanctions. These developments come amid renewed Israel-Iran tensions and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, reinforcing the geopolitical risk premium embedded in Crude Oil markets.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said officials are increasingly concerned that Iran is expanding its ballistic missile production and are preparing to brief US President Donald Trump on potential options for renewed strikes targeting the missile program. Meanwhile, comments from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s top foreign policy adviser suggested that recent amendments by European nations and Ukraine to US-backed proposals have failed to improve the prospects for a peace agreement, further clouding the geopolitical outlook.
However, lingering oversupply risks and uncertainty surrounding the global demand outlook continue to temper bullish enthusiasm. These factors may discourage traders from placing aggressive long positions, potentially capping further gains in Crude Oil prices. As a result, markets may wait for stronger follow-through buying before confirming that WTI has established a near-term base in the $55.00–$54.90 region, the lowest levels seen since April, before positioning for a more sustained recovery.
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