West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices extended their losing streak on Friday, sliding to a fresh five-month low of $56.52 during the Asian session before recovering slightly to trade around $56.70 per barrel. The decline comes amid renewed concerns about global oversupply and uncertainty ahead of the planned meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Hungary.
Geopolitical developments weigh on oil sentiment
Crude oil prices came under renewed pressure after reports confirmed that President Trump and President Putin had agreed to meet to discuss a potential resolution to the war in Ukraine. Market participants fear that any agreement that leads to an easing of Western restrictions on Russian oil exports could significantly increase global supply, exacerbating the current glut.
Adding to the geopolitical backdrop, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is expected to meet with Trump at the White House later on Friday to request additional military assistance, including US-made Tomahawk missiles, highlighting ongoing geopolitical complexities that could influence the energy market.
Supply-side pressures intensify
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Thursday that crude inventories rose by 3.524 million barrels last week, far exceeding market expectations of a modest 120,000-barrel increase. The unexpected build was largely attributed to reduced refinery activity as facilities entered seasonal maintenance.
The larger-than-expected inventory rise reinforced concerns about weakening demand and swelling stockpiles, adding to the bearish tone in oil markets.
Meanwhile, Washington’s calls for India and China to halt imports of Russian crude added another layer of uncertainty. Although Indian refiners signaled they would scale back purchases rather than fully suspend them, traders worry that diplomatic and supply chain shifts could further distort the global oil balance.
Trade tensions and global demand outlook
Escalating trade tensions between the United States and China — the world’s two largest economies and top oil consumers — have also dampened market sentiment. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent criticized Beijing’s recent move to restrict exports of rare earth minerals, labeling it “economic coercion.” Bessent warned that if China remains an unreliable trading partner, “the world will have to decouple,” according to BBC reports.
The prospect of a deeper US–China rift has raised fears of slowing global growth and lower oil demand, compounding the downside risks for crude prices.
Technical outlook
From a technical standpoint, WTI remains under strong selling pressure, with the next key support seen at $56.00, followed by $55.50. A decisive break below these levels could expose the $54.70 area, last seen in May. On the upside, resistance lies near $57.30, followed by $58.00. Momentum indicators suggest the bearish bias remains intact in the near term unless a sustained recovery above $58.50 occurs.
