USD/CHF held steady during Asian trading on Monday, hovering near 0.7930, supported by a softening Swiss Franc (CHF) amid domestic economic worries. Market participants are eyeing the upcoming Swiss Trade Balance report on Tuesday for further insights into the country’s economic performance.
The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) maintained its 2025 GDP growth forecast for Switzerland at a below-average 1.3%, citing a marked slowdown in the second half of the year. For 2026, SECO revised growth expectations lower to 0.9%, down from 1.2% in June, signaling a cautious economic outlook.
Meanwhile, gains in USD/CHF could face some restraint as the US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure amid the ongoing government shutdown, now entering its 19th day. Lawmakers failed for the tenth time last Thursday to resolve the impasse, marking the third-longest funding lapse in modern US history.
The greenback also contends with expectations for additional Fed rate cuts. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets have priced in a nearly 100% probability of an October rate cut and a 96% chance of another reduction in December.
On the other hand, the USD may receive support from easing US-China trade tensions. President Donald Trump indicated that China is expected to resume soybean purchases at previous levels and expressed optimism that a deal could be reached. “We can lower what China has to pay in tariffs, but China has to do things for us too,” he added.
