The United States is expected to lose around $30 billion in international tourism this year, as a combination of political uncertainty and a strong dollar deters foreign visitors. Early in 2025, the U.S. Travel Association projected foreign travel spending would reach $200.8 billion, but the World Travel & Tourism Council revised that estimate down to $169 billion following a sharp drop in arrivals.
Canada and Latin America gain
Neighboring countries and nearby regions are poised to capture the displaced travelers. In the first half of 2025, Canadian arrivals to the U.S. fell nearly 18% year-on-year, a decline of more than 1.75 million visits. Many Canadians are opting for domestic travel, helping boost Canada’s July hotel occupancy rate to 77.6%, its highest since 2019. The “Canada Strong Pass” initiative also drove increased visits to museums, historic sites, and national parks.
Other Canadians are choosing to travel south, but bypassing the U.S., favoring Mexico, Latin America, and the Caribbean instead, according to Tourism Economics and data from Booking Holdings. European travelers are also exploring Latin America and the Caribbean as alternatives to the U.S.
Emerging travel corridors
Booking Holdings reports “new travel corridors” forming as inbound travel to the U.S. declines. Western Europeans are increasingly traveling within Europe or to the Middle East, while more Asian travelers are targeting Europe and the Middle East. A Milieu Insight survey of 6,000 Southeast Asian travelers found that among those reconsidering U.S. trips, 58% plan to travel within Southeast or East Asia, 53% to Europe, and 45% to Australia and New Zealand.
Long-term trend and global share loss
The U.S. welcomed about 1 million fewer international visitors in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, and is projected to see 13 million fewer visitors by year-end versus 2019. Meanwhile, arrivals are rising in other destinations. Spain, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey are expected to gain 16.5 million, 14.5 million, and 14 million more travelers, respectively, compared to 2019 levels.
The U.S.’ share of global international travel has steadily declined, from 8.4% in 1996 to 4.9% in 2024, and is projected to fall further to 4.2% in 2025. Tourism Economics predicts this share will remain low for the next decade, signaling a continued shift toward competing destinations like France, Greece, Mexico, and Italy.
“The U.S. is losing share again in 2025,” said Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics. “We don’t expect it to recover that share within our forecast horizon, highlighting the growing strength of alternative destinations.”
