Solana has fallen 45% from its September high of $252.78 and is down 52.4% from its all-time peak. Trading at $139.75 at press time, the sixth-largest crypto by market cap stood at $77.4 billion. Its daily trading volume slipped 20% over the past 24 hours to $6.85 billion.
The altcoin declined amid a broader investor sell-off in September, a period dubbed “Red September,” which heavily impacted many altcoins. Rising inflation, shifting interest rate expectations, and global economic uncertainty triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on major economies have further reduced appetite for riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.
Solana on-chain metrics signal capital outflows
On-chain data show the total value locked (TVL) across DeFi protocols on Solana’s blockchain has fallen to $25.8 billion from $35.4 billion in mid-September. The total supply of stablecoins on the network has also dropped nearly 20% from its year-to-date high in October to roughly $13 billion.
The decline in TVL and shrinking stablecoin reserves suggest capital is flowing out of the Solana ecosystem. Investors may continue withdrawing liquidity or reduce exposure if risk sentiment worsens.
Even the recent launch of multiple U.S. spot Solana ETFs by asset managers including Bitwise, Grayscale, VanEck, and Fidelity has failed to provide immediate upward price support, despite nearly $420 million in inflows since inception.
Solana price analysis
On the daily chart, Solana has formed a large bearish rounded top pattern, which occurs as the price gradually peaks and creates a dome-like shape. This formation typically precedes deeper losses as buying momentum weakens.
A death cross is also approaching, with the 50-day Simple Moving Average nearing a crossover with the 200-day SMA. While a lagging indicator, in the context of Solana’s rounded top pattern and recent price action, this signals a highly bearish outlook.
As a result, Solana price may drop to $120, a key support level where buyers historically step in during downturns. If this level fails, a further decline to $95 could become increasingly likely, matching price levels last seen in April.
