Silver (XAG/USD) advanced on Thursday, trading around $48.70 per troy ounce during Asian hours, after two consecutive sessions of losses. The rebound comes as renewed safe-haven demand underpins the metal, with traders exercising caution ahead of US September inflation data due on Friday.
The ongoing US government shutdown, which has delayed several major economic releases including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), has added uncertainty to markets and clouded the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy outlook.
Expectations of further Fed rate cuts are also supporting the non-yielding precious metal. According to a Reuters poll, 115 out of 117 economists anticipate that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to a range of 3.75%–4.00% at its upcoming meeting on October 29. For the full year, 83 economists forecast two rate reductions, while 32 expect one cut, underscoring broad consensus toward a more accommodative monetary stance.
Silver’s upward momentum follows a sharp correction earlier this week, after prices briefly touched an all-time high of $54.86 on October 16. The pullback was largely attributed to profit-taking and concerns over overbought technical conditions, as well as improving global risk sentiment amid renewed optimism over US-China trade negotiations.
Late Wednesday, US President Donald Trump expressed confidence that he would reach “several agreements” with Chinese President Xi Jinping during their upcoming meeting in South Korea next week.
The talks are expected to cover a broad range of topics, including US agricultural exports, nuclear arms limitations, and China’s purchases of Russian oil — developments that could influence broader risk sentiment and, consequently, demand for safe-haven assets such as silver.
Market outlook: upside potential remains if Fed signals deeper cuts
Analysts note that the XAG/USD pair could continue to benefit from dovish Fed expectations and lingering market uncertainty. A deeper rate-cut trajectory or extended government shutdown could fuel additional gains in silver, as lower yields tend to enhance the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets.
However, traders remain cautious after recent record highs, with near-term resistance seen at $49.30 and $50.00, followed by $51.25 — levels that could test bullish conviction. On the downside, key support is located near $47.80, with stronger buying interest expected around the $47.00 zone.
Despite short-term volatility, silver’s broader uptrend remains intact, supported by safe-haven flows, a weaker US dollar outlook, and ongoing global macroeconomic uncertainty.
