Silver prices continued their sharp ascent, with the metal reaching a new all-time high of $64.3 per ounce yesterday, according to Commerzbank commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch.
Prices surge 120% YTD, strongest rally since 1979
“Since the beginning of the week, silver has gained nearly 10%, and around 27% over the past three weeks. Year-to-date, prices are now up 120%, putting silver on track for its strongest annual performance since 1979. The gold–silver ratio fell below 67 yesterday—its lowest level since June 2021 and only slightly above the 50-year average,” Fritsch noted.
He explained that the rally is being fueled by a combination of tight market conditions. Inventories in China remain low, while silver stocks on Comex continue to decline, even though they still sit above levels seen at the start of the year. At the same time, ETF demand has revived, with Bloomberg data showing a 1,145-ton increase in global silver ETF holdings over the past month.
However, Fritsch warned that the pace of the rally is becoming overstretched. “The price increase has become excessive, which calls for caution,” he said.
Long-term fundamentals remain constructive
Despite the near-term overheating, the fundamental outlook for silver remains strong. The Silver Institute this week released a report on industrial demand, highlighting expectations for a substantial rise in silver consumption in photovoltaics, electric mobility, and data-center/artificial-intelligence applications over the coming years.
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