A Reuters poll indicates the S&P 500 will remain almost unchanged in 2025, with Trump’s tariffs and market volatility being the main factors lowering growth expectations for the index.
Amid growing concerns over President Trump’s trade tariffs, analysts predict that the S&P 500 will close out 2025 near current levels, showing little significant growth. This outlook reflects market volatility and uncertainties around U.S. tariff policies, which have affected corporate profitability.
Overall S&P 500 Forecast for 2025
According to a recent Reuters poll conducted from May 15 to 28, 2025, the S&P 500 is expected to finish the year roughly at its current levels. This median forecast reflects the views of 51 analysts, brokers, and portfolio managers, who have revised down their outlooks due to the uncertainties and concerns related to U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs.
Year-End Target Revised Downward Compared to Earlier Estimates
The poll sets the year-end target for the S&P 500 at 5,900, significantly lower than the 6,500 target in Reuters’ February 2025 survey. For context, the index closed at 5,921.54 on the most recent Tuesday.
Market Volatility and Analysts’ Views on Corporate Earnings
The stock market has experienced considerable volatility this year, and analysts expect this trend to continue. Of the 14 respondents who addressed corporate profit growth, seven anticipate modest earnings increases in 2025 compared to 2024, two foresee substantial growth, while five predict earnings will decline slightly.
Impact of Tariffs on Earnings Forecasts and Index Targets
Sameer Samana, Head of Global Equities and Real Assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, noted that the firm has lowered its year-end S&P 500 target from 6,500 to 6,000. He emphasized that tariffs function much like a tax, with the financial burden borne by U.S. consumers, domestic companies, and international producers, which in turn reduces corporate earnings.
Sharply Lower Earnings Growth Expectations for 2025
Data from LSEG indicates that S&P 500 earnings are projected to rise by 8.4% in 2025, down significantly from 12.1% growth in 2024. This forecast has also dropped sharply from an initial 14% growth estimate made at the start of the year.
Trade Developments and Their Effect on the Stock Market
The stock market in 2025 has been heavily influenced by trade-related developments, particularly following Trump’s broad tariff announcement on April 2 targeting imports globally. Most recently, Trump delayed imposing a threatened 50% tariff on European Union goods until July 9, allowing time for negotiations between the White House and the 27-nation bloc. This decision has accelerated trade talks in Brussels.
Current Index Status and Market Uncertainties
Following a rally on Tuesday, the S&P 500 has gained only 0.7% so far this year. Analysts stress that the ongoing tariff negotiations’ back-and-forth nature has made forecasting the market’s trajectory particularly challenging.
Strategists’ Views on Market Risks and Target Ranges
Anthony Saglimbene, Chief Market Strategist at Ameriprise Financial, stated that due to tariff uncertainties, investors must price in higher risk premiums, a situation likely to persist through year-end. His firm’s base target range for the S&P 500 is between 5,600 and 6,000, which they consider reasonable given the tariff environment is unlikely to trigger a recession or drastically weaken corporate profits.
