In its latest monthly report, OPEC maintained its forecasts for global oil demand in 2025 and 2026, according to Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch. The group continues to expect a broadly balanced oil market next year, despite near-term fluctuations in supply.
OPEC output rises but remains below target
Fritsch noted that oil production among OPEC+ members bound by quotas increased by around 540,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September, consistent with the planned output hike. However, total production still fell about 260,000 bpd short of the group’s official target, as several producers, including Iraq and Russia, pumped below their assigned limits to compensate for earlier overproduction.
By contrast, Kazakhstan continued to exceed its quota, offsetting some of the shortfall from other members. Overall, OPEC+ production reached just over 43 million bpd last month.
Market outlook: short-term deficit, mild oversupply ahead
Despite the recent output increase, Fritsch highlighted that the oil market remains undersupplied in the current quarter, based on OPEC’s estimates of demand for crude from OPEC+ producers.
Looking ahead, OPEC expects signs of a mild oversupply in the first half of 2026, followed by a return to deficit conditions later in the year. “On an annual average, the oil market would be almost balanced next year,” Fritsch said.
However, Commerzbank notes that other agencies take a more bearish view. Both the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) project a more pronounced oversupply in 2026. The IEA is set to publish its updated forecasts later on Tuesday.
