Oil prices extended losses yesterday amid reports that OPEC+ may reintroduce supply faster than previously planned, according to ING commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson.
OPEC+ supply plans under scrutiny
The group is currently unwinding voluntary supply cuts of 1.66 million barrels per day (b/d), initially scheduled to return gradually at 137,000 b/d per month. Recent reports suggest OPEC+ could implement three monthly supply hikes of around 500,000 b/d each. If confirmed, this would increase the surplus through Q4 this year and into 2026. The market is expected to gain clarity on 5 October, when OPEC+ sets output levels for November.
US inventories show mixed signals
Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) offered some support for crude oil while weighing on refined products. US crude inventories fell by 3.7 million barrels last week, with Cushing stocks declining by 693,000 barrels. In contrast, gasoline and distillate inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels and 3 million barrels, respectively. The more widely followed Energy Information Administration (EIA) report is expected later today.
Middle distillates and market sentiment
Middle distillate cracks remain well-supported amid ongoing concerns over market tightness. However, gasoil stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) region have recovered to their highest level since May. Russia’s diesel export ban for resellers is expected to have limited impact on flows but adds to market caution. Analysts note that the move could pave the way for further restrictions on middle distillate exports in the future, keeping sentiment cautious.
