Commerzbank’s Head of FX and Commodity Research, Thu Lan Nguyen, noted that China’s gas imports fell around 7% month-on-month in September, based on recent customs data. While Chinese demand has partly recovered from earlier lows, it remains weaker compared to 2024 levels, creating mixed implications for the European gas market.
China’s gas imports recover but remain below last year’s levels
According to Nguyen, total gas imports for the year are approximately 6% lower than in 2024, improving from a 10% shortfall earlier in the year. The partial recovery has been supported by stronger LNG inflows since April.
“If this trend continues, it could push gas prices higher in the European market, as the EU’s LNG import needs are also expected to rise with the onset of the heating season,” Nguyen said.
European prices ease despite rising seasonal demand
Despite potential upward pressure from global demand, European gas prices have eased slightly in recent sessions. The Dutch TTF benchmark retreated after briefly touching around EUR 33.50 per MWh, as markets adjusted to milder near-term temperature forecasts.
Meanwhile, storage levels across the EU have continued to edge higher, reaching about 83% capacity. In Germany, inventories have also stabilized after a brief decline early last week, indicating that supply conditions remain comfortable heading into the winter months.
