CATL’s CEO predicts that by 2028, half of China’s heavy truck sales will be electric; a new 60 GWh battery factory in Shandong has been commissioned.
According to the CEO of battery manufacturer CATL, electric heavy-duty vehicles are expected to account for 50% of the Chinese market by 2028 — a dramatic increase from 10% in 2024, signaling a major transformation in the transportation industry and a reduction in fossil fuel demand.
Significant Growth in Electric Heavy Truck Market Share
In recent official remarks, Zeng Yuqun, Chairman of CATL — a leading electric vehicle battery producer — stated that half of heavy truck sales in China are projected to be electric vehicles (EVs) by 2028. This represents a remarkable rise from the 10% market share electric heavy trucks held in 2024, highlighting sweeping changes in China’s transportation sector.
Battery Swap System Unveiling and Market Impact
These statements, made during the unveiling of a battery swapping system for heavy trucks in Shanghai, were reported by Jiemian, a government-affiliated news site. The rapid increase in electric trucks not only presents a significant opportunity to reduce environmental pollution but could also profoundly affect the fossil fuel market, particularly in road freight transport.
Electric Trucks Competing with LNG Vehicles
Currently, China’s heavy truck market is undergoing fundamental changes. Alongside electric vehicles, liquefied natural gas (LNG) trucks are also expanding their share in reducing fossil fuel consumption. These parallel trends exert considerable pressure on oil and petroleum product demand, potentially reshaping the energy market outlook substantially.
Opening of a Major Battery Factory in Shandong
Alongside these developments, CATL announced on Saturday the commissioning of a new battery factory in Shandong Province with an annual capacity of 60 gigawatt-hours for energy storage and electric vehicles. This facility is CATL’s first manufacturing base in northern China and reflects rapid expansion of the electric battery supply chain in the region.
Plans for Subsequent Expansion Phases
According to announced plans, the factory’s second and third phases will be operational within the next two years, forming a billion-dollar battery industry cluster in Shandong. This expansion aligns with local government ambitions to establish a lithium battery industry worth 100 billion yuan (approximately 14 billion USD) by the end of the current year.
Outlook for China’s Lithium Battery Industry
Information released indicates this industry will encompass a complete production chain, including electrode materials, electrolytes, battery cells, and final assembly. This comprehensive structure positions China as a global hub for electric vehicle battery manufacturing.
Broad Economic and Environmental Impacts
Given these trends, the growth in electric heavy-duty vehicles’ market share is expected not only to drive significant economic and environmental benefits but also to induce fundamental changes in the global energy and transportation markets. Increasing battery technology adoption and related infrastructure development — such as battery swap stations — will lower barriers for heavy electric trucks and accelerate their replacement of traditional fossil fuel models.
China Leading the Transition to Clean Transportation
As the world’s largest electric vehicle market, China is making decisive strides toward its environmental goals and carbon emission reductions. These changes offer a promising outlook for related industries, including battery production, heavy trucks, and sustainable transportation.
Conclusion and Investment Significance
Ultimately, substantial investments in lithium batteries and renewable energy sectors will not only generate employment and economic growth across Chinese provinces but also serve as a successful model for other countries transitioning to clean transportation.
