Gold prices edged lower on Thursday, with XAU/USD trading at $3,339, down 0.30%, as traders turned cautious ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. The metal’s choppy trading reflects uncertainty around the Fed’s policy path following mixed US economic data.
US Economic Data
-
PMI readings: S&P Global reported strong business activity, with Manufacturing PMI rising to 53.3 (vs. 49.5 expected) and Services PMI at 55.4 (slightly below July’s 55.7 but above forecasts). The data suggests US economic growth is running at an annualized 2.5%, far stronger than in the first half of the year.
-
Labor market: Initial Jobless Claims climbed to 235K, above estimates of 225K, while Continuing Claims hit 1.972M, the highest since late 2021, signaling some labor market cooling.
Fed Commentary:
-
Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack warned inflation is still too high and said restrictive policy must be maintained.
-
Kansas City Fed’s Jeffrey Schmid stressed inflation risks outweigh labor concerns, while Atlanta Fed’s Raphael Bostic noted inflation remains above target, pushing back expectations for near-term rate cuts.
-
As a result, rate cut odds for September have dropped to 72% from 85% just a day earlier (Prime Market Terminal).
Market Reaction:
-
US Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 10-year yield up to 4.328%. Real yields also climbed, further weighing on gold.
-
The yellow metal remains under technical pressure, consolidating below the 20- and 50-day SMAs ($3,344–$3,348). The RSI turned bearish, hinting at fading momentum.
Technical Outlook:
-
Support: A break below $3,344/48 opens the path toward the 100-day SMA at $3,306 and $3,300.
-
Resistance: A move above $3,350 could trigger a climb toward $3,400, with further upside at $3,452 (June high) and $3,500 (record peak).
Summary
-
Gold trades at $3,339, slipping 0.3%, as investors await Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.
-
Strong US PMI data signals solid growth, while rising jobless claims highlight labor market softness.
-
Hawkish Fed commentary reduced September rate cut odds to 72%, pressuring gold alongside rising Treasury yields.
-
Technical view: Below $3,344 risks $3,300; above $3,350 could retest $3,400–$3,500.
