Gold (XAU/USD) extended its record-breaking rally on Monday, with prices advancing for a sixth consecutive week as dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations and safe-haven demand keep momentum intact. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades near $3,720 after notching a new all-time high of $3,728 earlier in the session.
The latest surge reflects growing market confidence that the Fed may deliver further easing before year-end. Last week’s 25 basis point (bps) rate cut was widely priced in, but investors are now leaning toward the possibility of two additional cuts in October and December. Still, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has maintained that future policy steps will depend on incoming economic data.
Gold’s year-to-date gains now exceed 40%, supported by a confluence of drivers: persistent geopolitical risks, steady central bank buying, sustained inflows into Gold-backed Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), and ongoing uncertainty around U.S. tariff policy. Together, these factors have propelled bullion into uncharted territory.
Fed commentary in focus
While Monday’s calendar is light on U.S. economic data, markets are bracing for a series of Fed speeches later in the day. New York Fed President John Williams, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, Fed Governor Adriana Hammack, and Fed Governor Stephen Miran are all scheduled to deliver remarks, offering investors fresh insight into the Fed’s outlook after last week’s rate cut.
Market movers: busy US calendar ahead
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told the Wall Street Journal he sees little need for further cuts at this stage, penciling in only one reduction for all of 2025. He emphasized that policymakers face one of the most challenging environments in recent memory, with risks emerging on both sides: inflation could reignite if policy eases too aggressively, while a weakening labor market threatens growth prospects. Bostic also underlined that the labor market is not currently in crisis.
Last Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate by 25 bps to a 4.00%–4.25% target range. The statement highlighted moderating economic activity, slowing job growth, and softening labor market conditions. While inflation has eased from prior peaks, it remains above the Fed’s 2% goal, with policymakers warning of rising risks to employment.
Meanwhile, positioning data reflects strong bullish sentiment. The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) report for the week ending September 16 showed speculators holding a net long position of 266,410 Gold futures contracts. Net longs increased as fresh buying outpaced short covering, while commercial hedgers ramped up short exposure, signaling active risk management at record highs.
The U.S. Dollar (USD) and Treasury yields eased on Monday, snapping a three-day advance. The Dollar Index (DXY) holds near 97.50, while yields remain subdued across the curve—both developments lending further support to Gold.
This week’s calendar is stacked with key U.S. events. On Tuesday, flash S&P Global PMIs will be released, followed by remarks from Powell and other Fed officials. Thursday brings the second-quarter annualized GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and weekly Initial Jobless Claims. The week wraps up on Friday with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, alongside additional Fed commentary.
Technical analysis: XAU/USD extends record-breaking run
Gold broke above its prior peak at $3,703, confirming bullish momentum as the metal surged to fresh records. Immediate support is now seen at $3,700, which has flipped into a key pivot level. Below that, the 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart near $3,673 provides the next cushion, with stronger support around $3,630—reinforced by the 100-period SMA at $3,611.
Momentum signals remain firmly bullish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding above 70, pointing to strong upside momentum despite overbought conditions, while the MACD continues to rise with expanding bullish histogram bars. As long as Gold holds above $3,700, bulls are likely to pursue fresh record highs.
