EUR/USD is trading slightly higher on Friday, recovering above the 1.1700 handle after dipping to recent lows earlier in the week. The pair remains confined within its established range as investors weigh hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials against upcoming Eurozone data. At the time of writing, the euro is trading near 1.1715.
Fed commentary limits rate cut expectations
The US Dollar gained some support on Thursday after Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan signaled caution over additional easing. While Logan backed the 25 basis points cut in September, she stressed the risks of moving too quickly and indicated she is not prepared to endorse another reduction at the next meeting. Her comments dampened hopes for an October cut, tempering bearish sentiment on the USD.
Eurozone Services PMI and Lagarde speech eyed
Market attention now shifts to September’s Eurozone Services PMI, which is expected to confirm growth accelerating to 51.4 from 50.1 in August—the strongest expansion so far this year. The figures are likely to shape the backdrop for European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde, who is scheduled to address the press later in the day. Meanwhile, Eurozone unemployment ticked higher to 6.3% in August, up from 6.2% in July, though the release had little immediate impact on the single currency.
Data vacuum in the US keeps trading choppy
With the US government shutdown delaying key macro releases such as September’s Nonfarm Payrolls, market participants have had little fresh data to guide direction. Thursday’s Challenger Job Cuts showed layoffs eased in September, falling to 54,064 from 85,979 in August. However, hiring plans were notably weak, hitting their lowest level since 2009 and underscoring signs of a deteriorating labor market.
Technical outlook: EUR/USD remains range-bound
From a technical perspective, EUR/USD is consolidating below resistance at 1.1760. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around the neutral 50 level, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is flat at the signal line—both suggesting a lack of clear momentum.
Immediate resistance lies at 1.1760, followed by the descending trendline near 1.1800. A failure to break higher could encourage sellers to retest support levels at 1.1685, followed by last week’s lows around 1.1645–1.1655. A deeper decline would target the early September lows near 1.1610.
