Dogecoin (DOGE) extended its bearish momentum on Tuesday, slipping below $0.2300 as technical signals pointed to growing downside risks. The meme coin’s weak structure mirrors uncertainty across the broader cryptocurrency market ahead of the fourth quarter, despite optimism that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may approve multiple spot altcoin ETFs.
Retail demand fades as derivatives sentiment weakens
Retail interest in Dogecoin has fallen sharply since mid-September. CoinGlass data shows futures open interest (OI) averaging $3.83 billion, well below the $6 billion peak reached on September 14. A sustained decline in OI reflects weakening trader conviction in DOGE’s ability to stage a sustained recovery, raising the probability of an extended downtrend.
The OI-weighted funding rate has also cooled, averaging 0.0017% compared with 0.0115% earlier this month. If the rate flips negative, it would signal growing bearish positioning in DOGE perpetual futures. Current trends suggest that traders are increasingly leaning toward shorts as price action stalls.
Technical outlook: wedge pattern hints at steep downside
On the daily chart, DOGE trades within a tight range defined by the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.2267 and the 50-day EMA at $0.2371. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to flash a sell signal from September 21, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has extended its decline, confirming persistent bearish momentum.
A rising wedge pattern adds further downside pressure. A decisive break below the ascending trendline — overlapping with the 100-day EMA — could trigger a drop of up to 44%, targeting $0.1255. This projection is based on the depth of the wedge formation.
Still, a short-term rebound remains possible if DOGE successfully defends the $0.2267 support. A sentiment shift across the crypto market in early Q4 could spark renewed risk appetite, potentially lifting DOGE back above $0.3000.
