The cryptocurrency market may be in what Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor, calls the “waiting room,” ahead of the next stage of price discovery. According to Pal, liquidity dynamics tied to the broader business cycle could extend the traditional four-year crypto cycle into the first or even the second quarter of 2026.
Market cycle may stretch beyond 2025
In a post on X Friday, Pal argued that “many key parts of the crypto ecosystem are in the waiting room ready to launch,” adding that his models suggest the market cycle is likely to extend into Q1 2026, and possibly Q2, due to a slower global business cycle that forces “more liquidity for longer.”
He emphasized that while the long-term path is clear, traders should not expect “tick-for-tick perfection.” Pal’s analysis is based on the business cycle score, a macroeconomic model used to track the global economy’s stage in the cycle.
Institutional positioning and macro backdrop
Other analysts see Pal’s framing as consistent with current conditions. Enmanuel Cardozo, market strategist at Brickken, told Cointelegraph that the recent pullback in digital assets was driven more by political tensions between President Trump and the Federal Reserve than on-chain dynamics.
Cardozo highlighted that institutional allocations toward major cryptocurrencies remain strong, supporting the case for an extended bull cycle. Meanwhile, stablecoin inflows on Binance have exceeded $1.65 billion, often a precursor to renewed crypto investment, as traders typically use stablecoins as entry capital for risk assets.
Altcoins preparing to “leave the waiting room”
Pal noted that some altcoins are lining up to outperform as the market transitions toward its next parabolic stage. Solana (SOL) is expected to be the first to break higher, with technical charts showing an ascending triangle—typically a bullish continuation pattern.
According to Pal, Sui (SUI) may follow, along with Dogecoin (DOGE), once broader categories such as “OTHERS”—large-cap cryptocurrencies outside the top 10—begin to rally. Meanwhile, XRP (XRP) is “in the process of full porting,” though some major altcoins may take longer to gain traction.
Cycle echoes 2017 rally
Two months ago, Pal compared the current market setup to 2017, when Bitcoin (BTC) skyrocketed by more than 1,200% within a year. He argued that similarities are “spookily close” to that cycle, but that weakening US dollar dynamics could prolong the current rally, suggesting the market peak is still several quarters away.
