Chocolate prices are expected to climb again in the coming months as the lingering effects of last year’s surge in cocoa costs filter through to retailers, though analysts say there may be some relief by next Easter.
Cocoa has hit record highs in recent years as poor weather, crop disease, and tight supply from West Africa — which accounts for about three-quarters of global production — strained the market. Combined with broader food inflation worldwide, the spike has pushed up the cost of chocolate in stores. In the U.K., consumer group Which? reported that chocolate products recorded the steepest average annual inflation in 2024 at 11 percent, while in the U.S. popular brands such as Hershey’s Kisses saw similar increases of around 12 percent.
Even after a slight pullback this year, cocoa futures remain exceptionally high, slipping from $8,177 per metric ton in January to roughly $7,855 in August — still more than triple the price from three years ago. Analysts warn that the decline will not show up in retail prices anytime soon. Chocolatiers are still digesting the record highs of late 2024, with costs continuing to flow through supply chains. “There is this ongoing deficit in the market, big depletion of cocoa beans and availability of products. So higher prices for longer here, I’m afraid,” said Tracey Allen, commodities strategist at J.P. Morgan.
The outlook is not entirely bleak. Better weather, increased plantings in Brazil and Ecuador, and softer demand from manufacturers may begin to ease pressure in the year ahead. J.P. Morgan forecasts that cocoa will stabilize around $6,000 per ton, a structurally higher level but one less volatile than the peaks seen earlier this year.
Still, long-term challenges persist. Experts point to chronic underinvestment and productivity problems in Ivory Coast and Ghana — the world’s two largest producers — as structural issues likely to keep global supply constrained. Rising labor costs in the U.K. and the threat of higher tariffs in the U.S. could also add further pressure on prices.
For consumers, that means chocolate is likely to remain expensive for some time, even if signs of gradual relief start to appear on the horizon.
