Bitcoin (BTC) has delivered only modest gains in September, rising about 4.3% to trade near $112,950 at the time of writing. While this marks a recovery from August’s 6.5% decline, the move looks muted compared to the double-digit surges seen in April and May.
In relative terms, Bitcoin is keeping pace with the Nasdaq 100, which has gained a similar percentage, but trails gold’s impressive 8.8% monthly advance. Given Bitcoin’s tendency to act as both a risk asset and a safe-haven proxy, its underperformance versus both benchmarks has drawn attention.
Factors weighing on Bitcoin performance
Sector news scarcity
Crypto rallies often depend on catalysts such as ETF approvals or regulatory tailwinds that drive fresh inflows and media attention. Since “Crypto Week” in mid-July, the sector has lacked major headlines, dampening speculative appetite. Profit-taking and subsequent liquidations of weaker long positions have added to downside pressure.
Consolidation and technical reset
Bitcoin’s broader rally from early 2024 to the record $124,517 high in August included several periods of consolidation, some lasting weeks, others months. These pauses help reset technical indicators and restore momentum. The latest slowdown appears to be another such adjustment phase.
Technical outlook
On the monthly chart, Bitcoin’s $124,517 peak ran into long-term trendline resistance near $125,000, a level traced back to the December 2017 top at $19,666.
Our base case favors an extended correction toward the $105,000–$100,000 support zone before fresh buying emerges. A pullback into this area would likely be viewed as a strategic accumulation opportunity.
Conversely, a decisive breakout above $125,000 would signal that the corrective phase has ended, opening the door for a rally toward the $150,000 region.
