Bitcoin remained under heavy selling pressure over the weekend and faces the risk of a deeper correction toward the $75,000 level, with market focus turning to the upcoming Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency has been hovering near the psychological $90,000 mark, a level that leaves it roughly 29% below its yearly peak. This sustained drawdown highlights that Bitcoin remains trapped in a pronounced bearish phase, with sentiment fragile ahead of major central bank developments.
Downside risks may intensify this week as investors brace for a potential BoJ rate hike on December 19. Data from prediction markets indicate a very high probability that the Japanese central bank will raise rates by 5 basis points in response to persistently elevated inflation.
The expected BoJ move is significant for several reasons. First, it would underscore the central bank’s policy independence at a time when Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has publicly favored maintaining low interest rates. Second, the decision would come just one week after the US Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, lowering the benchmark range to 3.50%–3.75%. This growing policy divergence between the Fed and the BoJ historically increases the risk of an unwinding of long-standing carry trades, a dynamic that has often pressured risk assets.
Third, historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin has tended to suffer double-digit declines following BoJ rate hikes. The sharpest sell-off occurred last year, when the Japanese central bank raised rates for the first time in decades, triggering broad volatility across global markets.
Adding to the cautious outlook, the Federal Reserve’s latest guidance pointed to just one rate cut in 2026, well below earlier market expectations. While speculation persists that former President Donald Trump could appoint a highly dovish Fed chair, investors remain mindful that other policymakers may act as a counterbalance. Notably, three Fed officials dissented at the most recent meeting, a sign that internal resistance to aggressive easing could persist into next year.
Bitcoin technical outlook
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains vulnerable as long as it trades below the $90,000 psychological threshold. A sustained break lower could accelerate selling pressure toward the $80,000 region, with the next major downside target emerging near $75,000. On the upside, any meaningful recovery would require a decisive move back above $95,000 to ease immediate bearish risks and stabilize near-term sentiment.
Technical indicators continue to warn that Bitcoin could face additional downside pressure in the coming weeks. On the daily chart, BTC has already confirmed a bearish “death cross” formation, where the short-term moving average slips below the longer-term average, a signal that often precedes extended declines.
Adding to the negative bias, Bitcoin is now forming a bearish flag pattern. This setup typically consists of a sharp downward move followed by a modest upward-sloping consolidation channel and is widely viewed as a continuation pattern. Once completed, it often results in another leg lower, reinforcing the broader bearish structure.
Momentum indicators further support this view. Bitcoin remains firmly below both the Ichimoku cloud and the Supertrend indicator, signaling that sellers continue to dominate market conditions and that bullish momentum remains absent.
From a price perspective, the immediate downside target is the November low near $80,000. A decisive break below this level would likely accelerate selling pressure, opening the door for a deeper decline toward the $74,500 support zone, which marks the lowest level seen in April this year.
