Bitcoin has slipped beneath multiple key support levels after hitting a new all-time high earlier this month, raising the risk of a deeper correction in the short term.
Daily chart: momentum turns bearish
On the daily timeframe, BTC has broken decisively below a major descending channel, the $110,000 support area, and the 100-day moving average that aligned with it. Losing these levels tilts the balance toward further downside, with the next critical zones around the $104,000 fair value gap and the 200-day moving average near the psychological $100,000 mark.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, highlighting bearish momentum and reinforcing the probability of continued weakness.
4-hour chart: $104k emerges as key battleground
The 4-hour chart shows a clear downtrend, with lower highs and lows forming within a tight descending channel. Both the $117,000 and $110,000 supports have been broken and retested, leaving the $104,000 region as the next likely target.
This level is significant as it overlaps with the Fibonacci golden zone’s lower boundary at the 78.6% retracement level, making it a potential rebound area. Market reaction here will be pivotal in shaping BTC’s near-term direction.
On-chain analysis: reserves continue to fall
Exchange reserve data shows a persistent decline since early 2024, with fewer coins held on centralized platforms. This trend suggests investors and institutions are moving BTC into cold storage, reducing the liquid supply available for immediate trading.
From a supply-demand perspective, shrinking reserves are bullish for the long term, as they tighten available supply. However, in the short run, the current pullback highlights how temporary drops in demand or shifting macroeconomic conditions can still trigger sharp corrections.
Outlook
The technical picture leans bearish in the near term, with $104,000 and the 200-day moving average at $100,000 the next levels to watch. A decisive break below $100,000 could trigger deeper downside, but strong on-chain fundamentals suggest longer-term support remains intact.
