Bitcoin (BTC) whales — entities holding more than 1,000 BTC — offloaded 147,000 BTC worth around $16.5 billion in the past 30 days, according to CryptoQuant. This marks a 2.7% decline in whale balances and the sharpest monthly drop of the current cycle.
CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno noted that whale holdings are shrinking at the fastest pace this year, highlighting aggressive distribution. Analyst Darkfost added that long-term holder (LTH) whales, especially those in the 6–12 month cohort, led the selling with more than 10 large transfers since early September, each averaging 8,500 BTC.
However, Glassnode data shows relatively limited flows to exchanges, suggesting sales are channeled via OTC desks or institutional custodians rather than spot markets.
Institutional buyers absorb supply
Despite whale selling, institutional demand remains firm. Japanese firm Metaplanet recently purchased 5,419 BTC, securing its position as the fifth-largest corporate Bitcoin holder. Michael Saylor’s Strategy also added 850 BTC last week, lifting its total stash to 639,835 BTC.
According to River, corporations now collectively hold more BTC than ETFs, with both categories accelerating their accumulation. This structural demand could help provide a medium-term floor even as whales take profits.
Technical outlook: bear flag points to $100K
BTC broke below $116,000 on September 22, confirming a bear flag breakdown on the daily chart. The coin has slipped under both the 50-day SMA at $114,300 and the 100-day SMA at $113,400, exposing further downside risk.
Key support now lies at $112,000–$110,000. A decisive close below this zone could pave the way for a move to the $100,000 region — an 11% decline from current levels. Momentum signals also support caution, with the RSI sliding from 61 to 44.
Should prices extend lower, analysts see $106,000 as an interim level where buyers may attempt to regroup before defending the crucial $100,000 psychological threshold.
Bottom line
Bitcoin faces intensifying whale distribution alongside weakening technicals. Still, steady accumulation from ETFs and corporate treasuries suggests structural demand remains intact. The $110,000–$112,000 zone is pivotal — failure to hold could confirm a deeper pullback toward $100,000.
