Do you remember when billionaire venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya confidently predicted Bitcoin would reach $500,000 by October 2025 on the All-In Podcast? That call failed to materialize, joining a growing list of high-profile Bitcoin forecasts that missed the mark in 2025.
After repeated misfires, market confidence in rigid Bitcoin “price targets” has weakened. Analysts increasingly frame their outlooks as scenario ranges rather than definitive promises. Even so, major banks, crypto executives, and veteran traders continue to publish ambitious — and often conflicting — projections for Bitcoin’s next phase.
Data compiled by Wu Blockchain highlights just how wide the gap has become. Expectations now range from renewed six-figure rallies fueled by ETFs and institutional adoption to sharp downside risks linked to tighter macro conditions and potential technical breakdowns.
Tom Lee: $200,000–$250,000
Tom Lee, chair of BitMine, has repeatedly argued that Bitcoin could reach between $200,000 and $250,000 by the end of 2026. His thesis rests on expanding institutional allocations and sustained structural inflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. According to Lee, growing institutional participation could fundamentally reshape Bitcoin’s historical boom-and-bust cycles.
However, views within Fundstrat, the research firm Lee co-founded, are not uniform.
Sean Farrell: $60,000–$65,000
Sean Farrell, Fundstrat’s head of digital asset strategy, has warned clients that Bitcoin could experience a sharp correction in early 2026, potentially falling to the $60,000–$65,000 range before resuming an upward trend. Farrell stresses the importance of time horizon, noting that Lee’s outlook targets long-term, low-allocation institutional investors, while his own analysis focuses on more active, higher-risk crypto portfolios.
Brad Garlinghouse: $180,000 and $100,000+
Speaking at Binance Blockchain Week in December 2025, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said Bitcoin could climb to $180,000 by the end of 2026. On the same stage, Solana Foundation President Lily Liu offered a more cautious view, suggesting Bitcoin could trade above $100,000. Binance CEO Richard Teng declined to provide a specific figure but stated that prices would be “higher than today.”
JPMorgan: $170,000 (model-implied ceiling)
JPMorgan’s digital assets team, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, estimates Bitcoin’s volatility-adjusted fair value at around $170,000, based on a BTC-to-gold relative valuation model. The bank frames this level as a theoretical upper bound rather than a firm year-end target, pointing to potential upside over the next six to 12 months instead of a guaranteed outcome.
Standard Chartered: $150,000 (down from $300K)
Once one of Bitcoin’s most vocal bulls, Standard Chartered has significantly reduced its forecast. The bank now expects BTC to reach $150,000 in 2026, roughly half its previous projection. The downgrade reflects slowing ETF inflows, weaker demand catalysts, and broader market softness. While still constructive on Bitcoin’s long-term outlook, the bank believes the timeline for major upside has extended.
Bernstein: $150,000
Bernstein also sees Bitcoin reaching $150,000 in 2026, driven primarily by institutional capital and spot ETF inflows. The firm argues that Bitcoin is no longer constrained by the traditional four-year halving cycle and is instead entering a prolonged, institution-led bull phase. Over a longer horizon, Bernstein maintains far more aggressive targets, including $1 million by 2033.
BSTR president Katherine Dowling: $150,000
Katherine Dowling, president of Bitcoin reserve firm BSTR, expects BTC to rise to $150,000 by the end of 2026. She points to three key tailwinds: clearer U.S. crypto regulation, a shift toward looser monetary policy including rate cuts and an end to quantitative tightening, and growing Wall Street adoption of Bitcoin ETFs with potential allocations of 1% to 4%.
Citigroup: $143,000 (base case)
Citigroup outlines three scenarios based on Bitcoin trading near $88,000. Its base case sees a 62% upside to $143,000. In a bearish scenario, BTC could slip to around $78,500, while a bullish case projects a move toward $189,000 if both institutional and retail demand accelerate. Citi highlights the $70,000 level as a critical area of technical support.
Arthur Hayes: $124,000 to $200,000
Crypto trader and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes wrote in his December 19 essay, “Love Language,” that Bitcoin could break above roughly $124,000 in 2026 and potentially challenge the $200,000 level. According to Wu Blockchain, Hayes’ thesis follows a clear chain of logic: expanding money supply leads to inflationary pressure, prompting investors to rotate into scarce-supply assets such as Bitcoin as a hedge.
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