The AUD/USD pair extends last week’s pullback from the nearly three-month high around 0.6685, marking a fourth consecutive day of losses on Tuesday. That said, spot prices have managed to recover a few pips from a one-week low posted during the Asian session and are currently hovering in the 0.6630–0.6635 area, down less than 0.1% on the day.
The Australian Dollar remains under pressure amid mixed domestic employment figures released last Thursday, while weaker-than-expected Chinese macroeconomic data published on Monday has revived concerns over the outlook for the world’s second-largest economy. These factors, combined with a softer risk environment, continue to weigh on the AUD. By contrast, the US Dollar stays on the defensive as markets price in further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, a notable divergence from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s relatively hawkish stance, which offers some underlying support to the AUD/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, the recent break below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the subsequent failure to reclaim this level favor bearish positioning. Momentum indicators on the hourly chart are gaining negative traction, reinforcing the case for additional downside. However, daily indicators remain in positive territory, suggesting caution before calling a near-term top.
A sustained move below the 0.6620–0.6615 area, which has flipped from resistance to support, alongside a clear break of the 0.6600 psychological level, would likely confirm renewed bearish momentum. In that scenario, the pair could accelerate lower toward the 0.6545–0.6540 support zone, with scope to extend losses below the 0.6500 mark. A decisive break under this level would expose the November multi-month low near 0.6420.
On the upside, immediate resistance is seen around the 0.6645–0.6650 region. A move above this barrier could allow AUD/USD to retest the recent multi-month high near 0.6685, followed by the year-to-date peak just above 0.6700. A convincing break higher would likely attract fresh bullish interest, opening the door for a move toward the 0.6755–0.6760 intermediate resistance and potentially the 0.6800 handle, with the next key hurdle located around 0.6820–0.6825.
