AUD/JPY traded flat around 98.05 in early European hours on Thursday, with investors digesting the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) July meeting minutes. Policymakers signaled that additional rate hikes remain on the table if inflation and growth track estimates, a stance that could lend near-term support to the Japanese Yen (JPY).
At the same time, political uncertainty ahead of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election on October 4 may limit the currency’s upside, keeping cross flows steady.
Technical outlook: bullish momentum intact
The constructive outlook for AUD/JPY remains intact as long as the pair holds above its 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. Momentum signals stay supportive, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering above the 50 mark near 63.50, suggesting continued bullish bias.
On the topside, initial resistance lies at 98.35, the September 15 high, followed by 98.65 at the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. A clear break above this zone could accelerate gains toward 99.17, the January 7 high, with scope to challenge the 100.00 psychological barrier.
To the downside, first support is seen at 97.28, the September 24 low. A sustained move beneath this level would open the door to 96.31, the September 3 low, before the 100-day EMA at 95.90 comes into play as an additional safety net for bulls.
