BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom Fund CIO Arthur Hayes has described the Federal Reserve’s Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) program as “quantitative easing in disguise,” arguing that the initiative will inject renewed liquidity into financial markets and ultimately drive Bitcoin prices significantly higher.
In a Dec. 19 essay titled “Love Language,” Hayes said RMP mirrors traditional QE through indirect channels, even if it avoids the political optics of explicit balance sheet expansion.
Hayes expects Bitcoin to trade in a choppy range between $80,000 and $100,000 in the near term, before reclaiming $124,000 and potentially advancing toward $200,000 as liquidity conditions improve.
Alongside his macro outlook, Hayes revealed a strategic portfolio shift, rotating capital out of Ethereum and into select high-quality DeFi assets, which he believes are better positioned to outperform in a rising liquidity environment.
How RMP quietly injects liquidity into markets
The Federal Reserve introduced the RMP framework at its December 10 FOMC meeting. According to Hayes’ analysis, the program works by purchasing short-term Treasury bills from money market funds, which then reinvest the proceeds into longer-dated Treasuries or the repo market.
While structurally different from classic QE, Hayes argues the end result is the same: indirect financing of government spending without explicitly expanding the Fed’s balance sheet through large-scale asset purchases.
“While RMP purchases are technically smaller in absolute size than past QE programs — roughly $40 billion per month — the mechanism creates an equivalent form of monetary expansion,” Hayes wrote.
He added that the program’s impact is amplified by the U.S. government’s growing dependence on T-bill issuance to finance annual deficits exceeding $2 trillion.
Hayes also pointed to the discretionary authority of New York Fed President John Williams, noting that the vague concept of “ample reserves” gives policymakers broad flexibility to scale RMP with limited transparency or oversight.
“This enables effectively unlimited balance sheet expansion,” Hayes said, characterizing the process as a covert version of monetary easing.
Hayes outlines a multi-phase Bitcoin price path into 2026
Looking ahead, Hayes outlined a multi-stage trajectory for Bitcoin through early 2026.
He expects range-bound and volatile trading between $80,000 and $100,000 through late 2025 and into January 2026. According to Hayes, this phase reflects lingering investor skepticism over whether RMP truly constitutes QE and uncertainty surrounding the program’s scheduled expiration in April 2026.
Once markets fully recognize RMP as a form of quantitative easing, Hayes anticipates a rapid repricing.
In that scenario, Bitcoin would quickly reclaim $124,000 and accelerate toward $200,000 in early-to-mid 2026, fueled by renewed institutional FOMO, rising ETF inflows, and growing awareness that the Federal Reserve is effectively underwriting government deficits.
Hayes identified March 2026 as a likely period of “peak expectations” for RMP-driven asset inflation. He expects a subsequent correction, but emphasized that any pullback would form a higher local bottom well above $124,000, rather than signaling a cycle top.
In comments made in late November, Hayes reiterated his longer-term conviction, projecting Bitcoin could reach $500,000 by the end of 2026 if global liquidity conditions continue to loosen.
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