Silver (XAG/USD) extends its losing streak into a fourth consecutive session, trading near $49.50 per ounce during Asian hours on Tuesday. The non-yielding metal remains under pressure as expectations for a US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in December continue to diminish. Traders now shift focus to key US data releases, including Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes and Thursday’s September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which may offer clearer signals on the Fed’s path.
The CME FedWatch Tool shows markets pricing a 43% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in December—down sharply from 62% a week earlier as investors reassess the Fed’s willingness to ease policy.
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson indicated Monday that risks to the labor market now outweigh inflation concerns, emphasizing a “slow” and cautious approach to further policy adjustments. In contrast, Fed Governor Christopher Waller maintained a more dovish tone, arguing that rates should be cut at the December meeting amid mounting worries over slowing hiring.
Supply concerns may limit silver’s downside
Downside momentum in silver could be partly cushioned by tightening supply risks, especially as the possibility of new US tariffs looms. The US Department of the Interior recently classified Silver, Copper, and metallurgical Coal as “critical minerals,” underscoring their strategic importance for national security and economic stability.
This designation opens the door for potential Section 232 investigations and additional trade measures—similar to recent actions in the Copper market—which could tighten supply and offer some support to silver prices in the near term.
