Gold (XAU/USD) holds firm on Wednesday as traders position for a more dovish Federal Reserve (Fed), with the metal trading near $4,150 after briefly touching two-week highs around $4,173 earlier in the session. Growing conviction that the Fed is preparing to ease policy continues to anchor Gold’s strength.
Sentiment shifted further after reports indicated that White House Senior Adviser Kevin Hassett has emerged as the leading candidate to become the next Fed Chair. Markets view Hassett as a dovish figure, given his previous support for interest rate cuts, reinforcing expectations of a December policy shift.
Tuesday’s delayed US data strengthened this narrative, showing softer consumer spending and moderating producer prices – both aligning with a cooling economic backdrop that typically bolsters expectations for lower rates.
Mixed safe-haven flows as peace-talk headlines improve risk appetite
Despite the supportive rate backdrop, Gold is seeing mild pressure on safe-haven flows as positive headlines hinted at progress in Russia-Ukraine peace efforts. An ABC News report suggested that Ukraine and the US had reached common ground on a potential peace framework, although the Kremlin later described discussions as “premature.”
The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades near 99.69 after earlier touching 99.96, while US data showed Durable Goods Orders rising 0.5% in September, beating the 0.3% forecast. Excluding transportation, orders increased 0.6%, also above expectations. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 216K, better than the 225K consensus.
Deutsche Bank raised its 2026 Gold forecast from $4,000 to $4,450, citing robust central-bank demand and stronger investor interest, while noting a potential high near $4,950 by late 2026. The World Gold Council’s latest report showed global Gold ETF inflows of 55.1 tonnes in October, driven mainly by strong demand in North America and Asia.
XAU/USD technical analysis: triangle breakout in focus
Gold is attempting to break topside from a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart—an encouraging signal for bulls. A clean move above the pattern resistance would open the door toward $4,200 and then $4,250.
Initial support sits at $4,150, followed by stronger support in the $4,050–$4,070 region, aligned with the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 60.45 signals positive momentum and leaves room for further upside before entering overbought territory.
