Gold (XAU/USD) remains firmly supported above the $4,400 level during Monday’s Asian session, maintaining strong intraday gains and signaling potential for further upside amid an intensifying global flight to safety.
Geopolitical tensions escalated sharply after the United States carried out land strikes in Venezuela, resulting in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. At the same time, US President Donald Trump’s confrontational rhetoric toward Colombia and Mexico heightened fears of broader regional instability in Latin America, reinforcing demand for traditional safe-haven assets such as gold.
In addition, expectations for further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve later this year continue to drive flows into the non-yielding metal. While rising geopolitical tensions also support the US Dollar’s role as the world’s primary reserve currency, a firmer USD has so far failed to undermine bullish sentiment in gold. This backdrop supports the case for continued gains as investors await key US macroeconomic releases scheduled for later this week.
Daily digest market movers: gold supported by safe-haven flows and Fed rate cut bets
Over the weekend, the US Army’s elite Delta Force reportedly launched an operation in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. President Trump also openly warned that Colombia and Mexico could face US action as part of a broader campaign targeting criminal networks and regional instability.
These developments add to existing geopolitical risks stemming from stalled Russia–Ukraine peace efforts, ongoing unrest in Iran, and unresolved tensions surrounding Gaza, all of which continue to underpin safe-haven demand for gold at the start of the week.
Dovish expectations surrounding the US Federal Reserve provide an additional tailwind. Markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a rate cut as early as March, with scope for another reduction later in the year. Speculation that a Trump-aligned Fed chair could push for more aggressive easing has overshadowed the central bank’s current guidance of just one rate cut by year-end.
Attention now turns to this week’s high-impact US economic data, including the closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday and upcoming inflation figures. These releases are expected to play a critical role in shaping expectations for Fed policy, influencing near-term US Dollar dynamics and determining the next directional move in gold.
Despite the USD extending its recovery from the lowest levels seen since early October and reaching a near four-week high, the XAU/USD pair has pushed decisively above $4,400. This resilience suggests that the path of least resistance for gold remains to the upside.
Gold bulls retain control above key technical levels
From a technical perspective, gold continues to trade above the 100-hour Simple Moving Average, keeping short-term bullish momentum intact despite a broader cautious tone. The 100-SMA near $4,377.80 acts as immediate support, while momentum indicators reinforce the positive bias. The MACD histogram has turned positive and is expanding, signaling improving upside momentum, while the RSI holds comfortably above 60 without entering overbought territory.
As long as prices remain above the descending 100-SMA, the recovery structure stays valid. A sustained break below this level would expose the metal to a deeper pullback, but current indicator signals suggest buyers remain in control and further gains remain possible in the near term.
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