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AUD/USD price forecast: Overbought signals emerge as pair tests yearly peak

The Australian Dollar (AUD) rebounded sharply against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, recovering from earlier losses tied to softer Australian employment data as selling pressure on the Greenback intensified following weaker US Initial Jobless Claims.

At the time of writing, AUD/USD trades near 0.6671, just below its year-to-date high after bouncing from an intraday low around 0.6626. The US Dollar Index (DXY) sits near 98.25, its lowest level in eight weeks.

Technical outlook: Aussie tests key resistance zone

AUD/USD extends its upward trajectory after bottoming near 0.6421 on November 21. Price action on the daily chart shows the pair comfortably above the 21-day, 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), reinforcing a constructive bias.

Immediate resistance stands at the yearly peak of 0.6707, last tested on September 17 and the strongest level since October 2024. A clear break above 0.6707 would open the door toward the psychological 0.6800 handle, with room for further gains if bullish momentum persists.

Support levels: focus on 0.6600 and 0.6540

Initial support is located at the 0.6600 psychological mark. A daily close below this threshold would weaken the short-term bullish structure and expose the next major support zone near 0.6540, where the 21-day, 50-day and 100-day SMAs converge to form a key technical floor.

Momentum signals: overbought conditions flashing

Momentum indicators suggest caution, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near the overbought threshold at 68, hinting at the possibility of consolidation before any sustained bullish continuation. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains positive, with the MACD line holding above the signal line, although a narrowing histogram points to a slower pace of upside momentum in the near term.


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