The AUD/USD pair extended its winning streak for an eleventh consecutive session on Friday, climbing toward the 0.6620 region in early European trading. The Australian dollar (AUD) continues to outperform its peers as expectations grow that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may adopt a more hawkish stance to counter rising inflation expectations.
Hawkish speculation intensified on Thursday after Australia’s monthly household spending data for October rose 1.3%, sharply higher than September’s 0.3% increase. Earlier in the week, RBA Governor Michele Bullock reiterated in Parliamentary testimony that further policy tightening would be warranted if inflation proves persistent.
Meanwhile, the US dollar (USD) trades with a cautious tone as markets remain confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates at next Wednesday’s policy meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is an 87% probability of a 25 bps rate cut to the 3.50%–3.75% range in December.
AUD/USD daily chart
AUD/USD traded at 0.6622 on Friday, maintaining its position firmly above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which continues to slope higher. This reinforces the bullish bias, with price action showing trend continuation rather than a pullback toward the mean.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 66.00, reflecting strong momentum without slipping into overbought territory. An RSI reading above 60 supports further upside, turning cautionary only if momentum reverses.
On the downside, the 20-day EMA at 0.6542 serves as key support; a daily close below this level could shift the outlook toward a corrective pullback.
If bullish momentum persists, a breakout above 0.6629 – the October high – could open the door for a rally toward the September 18 peak at 0.6660.
