The New Zealand dollar is extending its bullish momentum against the US dollar, with downside attempts consistently held above 0.5760. The pair has resumed its upward trajectory from mid-November lows, touching monthly highs at 0.5780 and bringing the October 6 and 29 peaks near the 0.5800 level back into focus.
The NZD/USD is positioned to finish the week with an impressive near-3% advance over the past two weeks. This move has been driven largely by broad USD weakness, as markets price in a 25-basis-point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve next week and anticipate two or three additional cuts in 2025.
US employment data boosts expectations of fed easing
A sharper-than-expected decline in private-sector hiring, reflected in the ADP Employment Change report, has strengthened expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut.
Meanwhile, November’s Nonfarm Payrolls release -traditionally a key market catalyst—has been delayed until the second week of December due to the ongoing US government shutdown, the longest on record, which has stalled the publication of official economic data.
RNBZ’s hawkish stance continues to support the kiwi
In New Zealand, this week’s economic calendar has been relatively quiet, but the NZD remains supported by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s hawkish tone. Although the RBNZ cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November, policymakers signalled that the easing cycle has likely reached its end – a message that sparked a strong rally in the Kiwi.
On Tuesday, newly appointed RBNZ Governor Anna Breman made her first public appearance before New Zealand’s Parliament, emphasizing that she will stay “laser focused on inflation.” Her remarks reinforce the central bank’s hawkish stance and highlight the widening policy divergence with the US Federal Reserve—an important factor underpinning the NZD’s recent strength.
