Gold (XAU/USD) is holding firm near a two-week high but continues to trade just under the $4,200 threshold, unable to fully capitalize on early Asian-session strength. Growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December remain a major tailwind for the non-yielding metal, while the latest push higher appears driven in part by technical buying above the $4,170–4,175 resistance zone.
At the same time, the US Dollar is attempting to build on its rebound from a one-week low, creating mild pressure on gold. A broader risk-on mood – supported by optimism over lower US interest rates and renewed hopes for progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations – is also limiting safe-haven demand. Even so, XAU/USD is on track for strong weekly gains and retains scope for further upside.
Daily digest market movers: gold holds bullish tone as Fed cut bets overshadow USD recovery
Dovish commentary from Federal Reserve officials has reinforced expectations that a December rate cut remains on the table. Recent mixed US economic data did little to challenge this outlook, helping gold reach a two-week high during Friday’s Asian session.
Additionally, reports indicate that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett is now the leading candidate for the next Fed Chair, with markets expecting he would support President Donald Trump’s push for significantly lower interest rates. This narrative offsets the modest USD uptick and provides another tailwind for XAU/USD.
On the geopolitical front, Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested the updated US proposal could serve as the basis for a potential peace agreement—conditional on Ukraine withdrawing from regions claimed by Moscow. He warned that Russia is prepared to take the territory by force if Kyiv refuses. Ukraine has repeatedly stated it will not cede any land.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov cautioned that a deal remains distant, while Trump insisted a Ukraine–Russia agreement is “very close.” Ongoing uncertainty keeps geopolitical risk elevated, indirectly supporting gold’s safe-haven appeal.
Despite the firmer Dollar, bullish sentiment toward gold remains resilient, further supported by expectations of lower US rates. With no major US data scheduled for release on Friday, XAU/USD will likely continue to respond to Fed-related speculation and overall market risk appetite. The broader backdrop still favors upside continuation.
Gold needs a clear break above $4,200 to confirm the next bullish leg
Gold’s latest upward move confirms a breakout from its recent consolidation phase, reinforcing the near-term bullish bias. A decisive push above $4,200 would strengthen the constructive outlook and open the door toward the monthly high near $4,245. A sustained break above this level would act as a fresh bullish catalyst, paving the way for an extended advance.
On the downside, the former resistance zone at $4,175 – 4,170 now offers immediate support, followed by the $4,150 region. A break below these levels could expose the $4,120 – 4,115 intermediate support, with the next key floor at $4,100.
A failure to defend this barrier would bring the $4,050–4,040 confluence into view—formed by the 200-period EMA on the four-hour chart and an ascending trendline from late October. A breakdown below this area would invalidate the positive structure and signal deeper corrective losses.
