Germany’s Federal Statistics Office (Destatis) will release the October Retail Sales report on Friday at 07:00 GMT. Markets expect monthly sales to remain steady at 0.2% MoM, with the annual reading also projected to hold at 0.2%.
How German Retail Sales could impact EUR/USD
A stronger-than-expected Retail Sales report could help EUR/USD recover intraday losses and extend its rebound, as upbeat consumer activity would support confidence in Germany’s economic outlook.
Conversely, softer data may have only a limited bearish effect on the Euro, given that recent ECB minutes signaled policymakers are inclined to keep rates on hold amid heightened uncertainty. Markets will also monitor Germany’s latest Unemployment figures and flash CPI inflation data due later in the session.
EUR/USD may find broader support as the US Dollar remains under pressure from rising expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate cut.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now price in over an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the upcoming meeting – sharply higher than the 39% odds seen just a week ago. Traders are also anticipating three additional cuts by the end of 2026.
Technical outlook EUR/USD
EUR/USD is trading with modest losses near 1.1590, pausing its three-day winning streak. The market tone remains constructive, with the 14-day RSI holding slightly above the 50 mark.
Immediate resistance is aligned at the 50-day EMA at 1.1606, followed by the monthly high at 1.1655 posted on November 13. On the downside, the nine-day EMA at 1.1571 offers initial support, while a break lower could expose the three-month low at 1.1468.
