LME Copper and Aluminium trimmed their weekly gains after China’s October data showed a sharper-than-expected slowdown, according to ING commodity strategists Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson.
Weakness across investment, industrial production, and consumer demand added fresh pressure to the broader metals complex.
Copper supported by supply risks despite softer demand signals
ING notes that Copper still managed to post a modest weekly rise of just over 1% in London, extending its year-to-date rally beyond 20%.
The upside continues to be driven by global supply constraints and heightened trade uncertainty linked to potential US tariffs. Adding some relief on the supply side, Freeport-McMoRan has partially restarted operations at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine following a fatal September accident that had halted output.
Aluminium struggles to extend gains as capacity constraints loom
Aluminium held onto small weekly gains, supported by concerns that Chinese smelters are nearing government-mandated capacity limits, which could constrain supply going forward.
China’s primary aluminium output reached 3.8mt in October, up 0.4% YoY but down 9% from September, reflecting tightening production conditions.
SHFE data: copper stocks fall for fourth week, others rise
The latest Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) inventory data show a mixed picture for base metals. Copper stocks declined for the fourth consecutive week, dropping 5,628 tonnes to 109,407 tonnes as of Friday.
Aluminium inventories increased by 1,564 tonnes to 114,899 tonnes, ending a four-week streak of declines.
Lead stocks rose by 4,208 tonnes to 42,790 tonnes, marking a second weekly increase.
Nickel inventories climbed 9.1% on the week to 40,573 tonnes, while zinc stocks edged up 0.7% to 100,892 tonnes.
Overall, ING’s analysts highlight that while supply-side risks continue to offer pockets of support, macro headwinds from China are once again weighing on the broader base-metals complex.
