Bitcoin (BTC) is set to record its first negative October since 2018, ending a seven-year streak of “Uptober” gains. As of October 31, BTC traded around $110,155, down 5.5% from September 30’s $122,870 and nearly 13% below its October 6 all-time high of $126,198. Analysts point to profit-taking and heightened macroeconomic uncertainty as key drivers of the month’s decline.
Macro uncertainty and ETF outflows weigh on Bitcoin
Vugar Usi Zade, COO of Bitget, highlighted significant outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs, which totaled over $550 million in late October. These withdrawals reflect investor caution amid ongoing uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy and broader macroeconomic factors.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent comments indicating that October’s 25-basis-point rate cut may be the last of the year have reinforced expectations of a “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment, further pressuring risk assets including Bitcoin.
Structural maturity moderates BTC momentum
Analysts at TeraHash suggest that Bitcoin’s October decline may also reflect the cryptocurrency’s growing structural maturity. While momentum remains steady, it is gradually slowing as the market attracts more capital, resulting in moderated price swings.
Historical comparisons show weaker momentum in recent periods, with BTC’s rallies from September to December 2024 and April to July 2025 notably less pronounced than previous cycles. This trend implies that while gains may be tempered, Bitcoin is also somewhat insulated against sharp downturns, marking a transition toward a more stable market phase.
