Copper prices have held near record highs in recent weeks, buoyed by a softer US dollar, expectations of global rate cuts, and persistently low inventories. The broader tone across industrial metals has turned positive, according to ING’s senior commodity strategist Ewa Manthey.
Supply disruptions add to price momentum
“Copper is the standout performer in the base metals complex,” Manthey said, noting that prices have surged more than 20% year-to-date despite lingering concerns about global growth and trade frictions. The rally coincides with the US Federal Reserve’s move into a monetary easing cycle, creating a more supportive macro backdrop for commodities.
On the supply side, disruptions have further fueled the rally. Freeport-McMoRan’s declaration of force majeure at its massive Grasberg mine in Indonesia—the world’s second-largest copper operation, accounting for roughly 4% of global output—has added to an already significant number of production setbacks this year.
Demand signals remain uneven
Despite the upbeat price action, short-term demand indicators remain mixed. “Macro uncertainty, particularly surrounding US-China trade negotiations and their impact on copper demand, continues to cloud the near-term outlook,” Manthey said.
However, ING maintains a constructive long-term view. “The structural demand story for copper remains intact, supported by investment in power grids, electrification, renewable infrastructure, and increasingly from data centers and AI-related demand,” Manthey noted.
Recent reports suggest China may be showing early signs of price sensitivity. According to Bloomberg, mainland smelters are preparing to boost exports as high domestic prices begin to weigh on local consumption.
Outlook: support near $10,000/t but limited upside near term
While supply-side tightness is likely to keep a floor under prices around the $10,000 per tonne mark, ING expects copper’s next leg higher will depend on stronger demand growth from China—the world’s largest consumer of the red metal.
“For now, copper prices are likely to remain range-bound,” Manthey concluded, “but the broader narrative for the coming years still favors a bullish structural trend.”
