MicroStrategy (MSTR) shares extended their downward slide on Thursday, October 17, as Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency market sold off sharply, deepening pressure on the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder.
MSTR stock forms a bearish death cross
MicroStrategy’s stock fell to an intraday low of $280, marking its weakest level since April 15 and down more than 40% from its yearly high. The decline underscores the stock’s continued decoupling from Bitcoin, which briefly touched record highs earlier this month before reversing lower.
Technical analysis shows that MSTR has broken below a key support zone around $292, where it had been attempting to establish a double-bottom formation. The breakdown through that level suggests additional selling pressure ahead.
The death cross — a bearish technical pattern that occurs when the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) falls below the 200-day EMA — has now appeared on the daily chart, reinforcing the downtrend signal.
Momentum indicators support the bearish case: both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD are trending lower, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) has climbed above 20, suggesting the current downtrend is gaining strength.
If the selloff continues, the next key support levels to watch are $230 — the May 2025 low — followed by $200, which could come into play if bearish momentum accelerates.
Bitcoin slump adds to downside risk
MicroStrategy’s share price remains tightly correlated with Bitcoin, given that the firm holds more than 640,000 BTC, valued at roughly $67 billion at current prices. As Bitcoin enters what analysts describe as a short-term bear phase, the company’s valuation and balance sheet are likely to face further pressure.
On the charts, Bitcoin has formed a double-top pattern on the daily timeframe and a rising wedge structure on the weekly chart—both traditionally bearish signals. These patterns point to potential downside below $100,000, especially as broader risk sentiment weakens and macro uncertainty increases.
As Bitcoin’s price falls, MicroStrategy’s net asset value (NAV) continues to erode, complicating the company’s ability to raise capital through preferred share sales. The firm’s modified NAV (mNAV) ratio has dropped from 3.3 in November to just 1.195, while its enterprise value multiple has fallen to 1.4.
Several other Bitcoin treasury companies have experienced similar revaluations. Metaplanet’s NAV has fallen below 1, while MicroCloud Hologram, KindlyMD, and Semler Scientific have all seen their NAV multiples dip under parity — a sign of waning investor confidence in Bitcoin-linked corporate strategies.
Outlook
With both technical and fundamental headwinds intensifying, analysts warn that MSTR could face further volatility in the weeks ahead. Unless Bitcoin stabilizes above key support levels, MicroStrategy’s leveraged exposure to the cryptocurrency may continue to weigh on its share price.
