Oil prices recovered at the start of the week following Friday’s sharp decline, supported by signs of easing trade tensions between the US and China. Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch noted that Beijing’s continued strong crude oil imports also helped stabilize market sentiment.
China’s crude imports remain robust in September
According to data released by China’s customs authority, the country imported 47.25 million tons of crude oil in September, equivalent to 11.5 million barrels per day. This represents a 3.9% increase from the same month last year, though imports were down 4.5% compared to August due to calendar effects.
“On a daily basis, imports were only slightly lower than in August,” Fritsch explained. He added that data from market intelligence firm Kpler suggest that tight import quotas limited purchases by independent refiners, particularly from Russia and Iran.
In the first nine months of 2025, China’s crude oil imports were 2.6% higher than in the same period a year earlier, reflecting steady demand despite global supply concerns.
Reserve purchases help absorb rising supply
Fritsch highlighted that the rise in Chinese crude imports this year has been driven largely by state-led reserve purchases. “These are likely to have helped absorb the increasing supply on the oil market,” he said.
However, Commerzbank expects global oversupply to expand in the coming months. “It is therefore crucial for the stability of the oil market that reserve purchases continue,” Fritsch concluded.
