West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rebounded from a five-month low of $60.22 on Thursday, trading near $60.70 per barrel in early Asian hours on Friday. Despite the bounce, oil prices are set for a third consecutive weekly decline amid expectations of increased supply from OPEC+ and other market headwinds.
OPEC+ output concerns cap gains
Reports indicate that OPEC+ could raise production by as much as 500,000 barrels per day in November, triple October’s hike, as Saudi Arabia seeks to regain market share. Analysts warn that such a supply increase could push crude back toward support near $58.00, with potential tests of this year’s lows around $55.00.
Additional supply pressures
Further pressure comes from Iraq’s Kurdistan region, which resumed exports after a 2.5-year halt. Under a new agreement with Baghdad, the Kurdistan Regional Government and international firms will initially transport 180,000–190,000 barrels per day to Turkey’s Ceyhan port, adding to global supply.
US inventories and demand concerns
US crude inventories rose 1.792 million barrels last week, exceeding forecasts of 1.5 million, as refining activity and demand softened, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Meanwhile, the ongoing US government shutdown could weigh on oil demand by limiting economic activity, with no resolution expected before next week.
