September is traditionally considered a bearish month for crypto, but the current bull cycle differs from previous ones. Major institutions such as BlackRock, MicroStrategy, Fidelity, and others are actively involved in the crypto market, while some governments are evaluating BTC and other major cryptocurrencies as strategic reserves. Interestingly, some large market players historically pay attention to astrology, and today’s blood moon (lunar eclipse) is capturing attention. Bitcoin is currently trading around $111,000, and several top analysts are forecasting a significant correction.
Macro environment: Rate cuts and market expectations
Investors are also watching potential Fed interest rate cuts of at least 25 basis points in September. Strong CPI, PPI, and employment data point to high probabilities of a rate reduction. Analysts warn that the event could act as a “sell the news” trigger, as markets have largely priced in expectations, potentially leading to a short-term correction before the continuation of the uptrend.
Insider activity and broader risks
Reports suggest some major tech CEOs are quietly offloading stocks. Microsoft’s CEO reportedly sold 15% of company shares, and NVIDIA’s CEO has also reduced holdings. These moves, along with geopolitical tensions like the Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Gaza conflicts, should be considered when planning trades. Market signals may not always be obvious, and caution is warranted.
Bitcoin technical outlook
Bitcoin has broken a key technical level: the EMA50 on the daily chart, often referred to as the “golden line” by crypto analysts. In June, July, and August, BTC repeatedly tested this level and bounced. However, in September, the EMA50 has flipped from strong support to resistance, signaling a possible correction of 15% to 25%.
Perspective on correction
Corrections are a healthy part of market cycles, providing liquidity and strengthening momentum for future gains. Yet, the possibility remains that we may be near a short-term market top, especially as major players reduce exposure. Following the moves of institutional investors can provide insights, as they often act ahead of broader market shifts.
