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Political instability and rate cut expectations boost crypto

August ended on a weak note for crypto assets, but the first week of September has brought some stabilisation, or at least a pause in selling pressure. Bitcoin, a major laggard last month despite coming off record highs, has reclaimed levels above $110,000 and continues to hold there, while ether has found support around $4,200.

What we’re watching

The market is reacting to a mix of macroeconomic and political developments. Friday’s weak U.S. payrolls report has strengthened expectations for a September rate cut. Meanwhile, political turmoil in Japan, France, and upcoming U.S. inflation data is keeping investors alert. In Japan, a new prime minister is expected with little market excitement, while in France, today’s vote outcome has largely been priced in, and French markets have stabilised ahead of the news.

Signs of political instability continue to enhance crypto’s appeal as a hedge against shifting government policies, while an anticipated Fed rate cut could provide further momentum not only for crypto but also for equities.

What our clients think

Client sentiment remains strongly bullish on crypto, with 83% long on ether and 81% long on bitcoin. Trading activity over the month has shown a balanced mix of buying and selling, reflecting caution around recent price weakness while also betting on Fed-driven gains in risk assets.

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