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GBP/USD price forecast: tests confluence zone at 1.3500 with nine-day EMA support

The GBP/USD pair paused its three-day winning streak on Friday, consolidating near the 1.3500 handle during Asian trading hours. Despite the pullback, the broader bias remains constructive as the daily chart indicates the pair is holding within an ascending channel pattern.

Technical signals favor bulls

Momentum indicators point to sustained strength. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands above 50, underscoring a bullish tilt, while the pair’s position above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) suggests short-term momentum remains positive.

On the upside, a push higher could retest the monthly high at 1.3594 (August 14). A breakout there would reinforce the bullish outlook, paving the way toward 1.3788 (July 1, highest since October 2021). A stronger move could even test the upper boundary of the ascending channel near 1.3840.

Key support levels

Initial support lies at the nine-day EMA at 1.3488, followed by the 50-day EMA at 1.3458, both aligning with the channel’s lower boundary. A decisive break below this confluence zone would flip the outlook bearish, exposing downside risks toward the four-month low at 1.3141 (May 12).

GBP/USD continues to hold above crucial moving averages, maintaining its bullish structure. However, a failure to defend the 1.3480–1.3450 zone could shift momentum back in favor of the bears.

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