S&P Global has reaffirmed its AA+ long-term and A-1+ short-term U.S. sovereign credit ratings, citing expectations that tariff revenue from President Donald Trump’s trade policies will help counter weaker fiscal outcomes from his recently enacted tax-and-spending package.
The agency said it anticipates “meaningful” tariff collections to generally offset revenue losses linked to Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” which combines government spending cuts with broad tax reductions. The Congressional Budget Office recently projected the legislation will add $3.4 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade, with a $4.5 trillion hit to revenues only partly cushioned by $1.1 trillion in lower spending.
S&P cautioned, however, that U.S. deficits remain high, and political gridlock could still pressure the rating over the next two to three years. Risks also include any erosion of institutional strength or challenges to the Federal Reserve’s independence, which could ultimately threaten the dollar’s global reserve status.
July Treasury data showed nearly $21 billion in additional customs duties collected from tariffs, though the monthly budget deficit still widened by almost 20%. S&P said its “stable outlook” reflects expectations for continued economic resilience, effective monetary policy, and broad tariff-driven revenue support despite fiscal slippage.
“The stable outlook indicates our expectation that although fiscal deficit outcomes won’t meaningfully improve, we don’t project a persistent deterioration over the next several years,” the agency said.
