OPEC+ confirms steady July oil production hike amid healthy market fundamentals and rising global demand.
OPEC+ has agreed to raise oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July 2025, continuing its gradual supply restoration strategy amid improving market conditions and stable global demand.
OPEC+ Maintains July Output Increase at 411,000 bpd
In a virtual meeting held on Saturday, OPEC+ confirmed it will increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July 2025. This figure matches the hikes implemented in May and June, reflecting a cautious but steady approach to replenishing global oil supplies. The decision supports the group’s ongoing strategy of carefully balancing supply and demand to stabilize the market.
Coalition’s Strategy to Regain Market Share
Eight OPEC+ countries have accelerated production increases since May, moving faster than initially scheduled. Led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, the coalition aims to regain market share while disciplining members who overproduced in previous months. This approach also seeks to challenge non-compliant producers outside the group by maintaining competitive supply levels.
Market Fundamentals Support Steady Increase
OPEC+ cited a “steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals” as reasons for maintaining the 411,000 bpd increase. Low oil inventories globally indicate a balanced market that can absorb the additional supply without causing sharp price declines, according to the alliance’s post-meeting statement.
Price Trends and Economic Factors
Oil prices hit a four-year low in April, falling below $60 per barrel after OPEC+ announced a tripled output hike in May. Prices slightly recovered to close near $63 by the end of May, despite ongoing concerns about global economic growth impacted by U.S. tariffs and trade tensions. These factors continue to influence supply and demand dynamics in the oil market.
Global Oil Demand Outlook
Global oil demand is forecasted to grow by approximately 740,000 to 775,000 barrels per day in 2025, based on data from the International Energy Agency and industry analysts. This moderate demand growth justifies the phased increase in OPEC+ production, helping to prevent supply shortages while avoiding oversupply.
Internal Compliance Challenges
Not all members are fully aligned on production levels. Kazakhstan recently announced it will not reduce its output, which raised speculation about the potential for a larger supply increase in July. Despite such challenges, the group collectively decided to maintain the steady pace of output growth.
Ongoing Production Cuts Through 2026
In addition to phased supply increases, OPEC+ continues to enforce two layers of production cuts that remain in effect until the end of 2026. These measures aim to balance the market long-term and ensure that oil prices remain stable amid changing global demand patterns.
Outlook for OPEC+ Policy
OPEC+ will continue monitoring global economic trends, inventory levels, and geopolitical developments. The group’s measured approach to increasing production signals its commitment to maintaining a stable oil market and avoiding sharp price volatility as global demand recovers.
